Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1793
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 31 2023 00:41:09

ACUS11 KWNS 310041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310040=20
MTZ000-310215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Areas affected...Central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 310040Z - 310215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercells may congeal into a small
forward-propagating MCS later this evening. Large hail will be the
primary threat initially with an increasing severe wind gust threat
once storms grow upscale.

DISCUSSION...Continued destabilization combined with falling heights
as the ridge deamplifies somewhat, has combined for thunderstorm
development across portions of central Montana. Limited forcing
should keep storms widely scattered and discrete for the first few
hours. However, expect upscale growth across central Montana later
this evening as the low level jet strengthens to 25 to 35 knots.
Wind profiles support supercells with strong mid-upper level flow
(60 knots at 6km and nearly 100 knots at 10km per TFX 00Z RAOB).
During the initial, more discrete supercell mode, large hail will be
the primary threat. However, the threat should transition to wind
once storms grow upscale.

...Bentley/Grams.. 07/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8SCgXECyfxnBZ9pap6_FjnjYbrfS1TQGAZBkxTtR64i0UhYbkHxuR-Cj_vJjwQ4mO4aC8T-UI=
x_kAxsi2X61C3wgqdk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48331104 48961095 49230943 49110801 48020692 45670631
            45040674 45030870 45120965 45381002 46841029 48331104=20


=3D =3D =3D
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