Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1789
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 30 2023 20:27:07

ACUS11 KWNS 302027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302026=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...far western Iowa...far northwest
Missouri...far northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 302026Z - 302230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of occasional large hail are possible this
afternoon. Overall coverage and intensify of storms is not certain.
The necessity of a watch will depend on convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Storms have continued to form in association with a
subtle shortwave/weak warm-advection regime. These storms have
occasionally produced large hail this afternoon in South Dakota.
Additional thunderstorms have formed in eastern Nebraska, west of
Omaha. MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kts
would support some continued risk of large hail. Storms, however,
have not appeared overly organized on regional radar imagery and
have tended to pulse intensity. The 12Z observed OAX and TOP
soundings did show some dry air at low levels which appears to be
reflected in objective MLCIN fields. That being said, these storms
may be slightly elevated in nature. The need for a watch will be
conditional on trends in storm coverage and intensity.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 07/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8fu-6h5Bh8IeavshOQmTL5SgOZw691wa2uck7U2azqv7N5aZpP3KChhE_j_QK1BfZ7Hk6v8S0=
HVp4tUOiCg3hpPFj5Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   41709808 42609822 43109821 43409758 42789655 41919585
            40989503 40219511 39919562 39979641 41709808=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.