Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1788
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 30 2023 20:06:08

ACUS11 KWNS 302006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302005=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 302005Z - 302200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...High-based storms moving out of southeast Wyoming will
eventually encounter greater moisture in Nebraska. Storms will be
capable of strong/severe wind gusts and large hail. Hail in excess
of 2 inches is possible as storms intensify in Nebraska. A watch is
possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to form within the Laramie
Range and a modest surface trough in the High Plains. These storms
will be relatively high based given the low 50s F dewpoints in the
immediate vicinity of the terrain. Greater moisture resides to the
east. So far this afternoon, dewpoints in the Nebraska Panhandle
have mixed down to the low 60s F as the surface winds have veered.
Farther east, southeasterly winds have been maintained with
dewpoints remaining in the low 70s F into central Nebraska. Early
storms will be capable of strong/severe wind gusts and perhaps some
marginally severe hail. Very large hail would be possible as storms
interact with richer low-level moisture, though this is conditional
on a discrete storm mode being maintained. Most guidance shows at
least a loosely organized cluster of storms moving east into central
Nebraska which could pose a greater threat for severe wind gusts. A
watch is possible later this afternoon.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 07/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4JB6fgNqwjh3N3WG8nHF4w3IAy3aVkl3CjvjQzNk-DmkuTRsXT1Css7E9SUyE4VXLVq1vJxAg=
6Z6CrDAIM9bJsgPo90$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40890496 42280602 42830572 42910339 42890163 42640048
            42240035 42160029 41110070 41010088 40860171 40900267
            40930379 40890496=20


=3D =3D =3D
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