Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1787
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 30 2023 19:36:07

ACUS11 KWNS 301936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301935=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Areas affected...central and southeastern Mississippi eastward to
central and southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301935Z - 302200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms, capable of producing brief bouts
of marginally severe hail and gusty winds, will spread southward
across Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia this afternoon.  WW issuance
appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A moist airmass across the Southeast U.S. continues to
moderately destabilize this afternoon, in response to diurnal
heating.  This has led to ongoing/increasing development of
thunderstorms, from central Mississippi east to central and southern
Georgia.  Moderate northerly/northwesterly flow aloft is resulting
in southward advance of the storms, and has supported some loose
linear organization across Alabama.

Given the thermodynamic environment, storms will likely continue to
increase in coverage this afternoon.  However, the lack of more
substantial flow aloft should result in generally disorganized
updrafts, and thus largely pulse-type/isolated severe potential.=20
Should storms evolve into a more organized line, somewhat greater
potential for wind gusts at or near severe levels could evolve.=20
Aside from this evolution however, WW issuance remains unlikely
across the region.

...Goss/Thompson.. 07/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!41E5FzvWRityUx-rVup8AGDDRMrOtT6QabgsycP7z_eUZN22qurxvaaT5UBScCvhxWsTaEgsO=
8ew-UKofKI2-UMht7k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32848981 32758907 32158847 32208778 32368726 32198606
            32388475 32668437 33048399 33118318 32198177 31218213
            30698576 30598772 31108950 31919026 32848981=20


=3D =3D =3D
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