Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1786
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 30 2023 19:25:36

ACUS11 KWNS 301925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301925=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-302130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Areas affected...Black Hills Vicinity into southern South Dakota and
far northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 301925Z - 302130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large/very large hail and severe
wind gusts are expected in the Black Hills vicinity. Some upscale
growth could occur later this afternoon with a greater risk of
severe winds accompanying it. A watch is likely this afternoon for
this activity.

DISCUSSION...Outflow from an elevated cluster of storms in
north-central/eastern South Dakota appears to have contributed to
the development of a modest mesohigh. This is helped to foster
increased convergence within the Black Hills. An updraft has
continued to deepen over the last hour and storm initiation has
recently occurred per NLDN data. With the downstream environment
warming into the upper 80s to low 90s F, it appears that MLCIN has
mostly eroded using a modified, observed 12Z Rapid City sounding.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear will
promote supercells capable of large/very large hail and severe wind
gusts. Storm coverage may initially be isolated, but additional
development later this afternoon is possible. Further, some upscale
growth may occur as storms progress southeastward along a modest
baroclinic zone. A watch is likely this afternoon for this activity.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 07/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8IIxpR-foPwZRTqopj_LGOmDm1kCorXpFOwWkEDjhrcHRO9eghfiwE2N-1BFzjhIyUCCLn-UG=
hh1CvUiui8W47rIlhY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43640416 43790458 44150544 44560547 44830515 44850416
            44430219 43929984 43599933 43129930 42869982 42670112
            42890248 43080335 43400391 43640416=20


=3D =3D =3D
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