Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1785
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 30 2023 16:16:05

ACUS11 KWNS 301616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301615=20
SDZ000-301815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1785
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Areas affected...central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301615Z - 301815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of elevated strong/locally severe storms will
continue moving southeastward across portions of central and eastern
South Dakota this morning, with large hail and gusty wind potential
to continue with the strongest cells.  WW issuance may be
considered, with any increase in storm coverage/intensity.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of organized/severe
storms moving southeastward across central portions of South Dakota,
within a zone of warm advection northeast of a surface warm front.=20
The convection is being fueled by moderate elevated CAPE, supported
by steep lapse rates above the still-stable boundary layer.

This cluster of storms has been very poorly handled by both
paramaterized and convection-allowing models, and anticipated
weakening of the 15 to 20 kt southwesterly low-level jet has not
occurred, which has resulted in continuation of the vigorous
convection.  Given the low-level southeasterlies, beneath moderately
strong mid-level northwesterly flow, and with the presence of the
northwest-to-southeast axis of elevated CAPE, indications are that
this convection will likely continue spreading southeastward over
the next few hours.  In fact, severe potential may increase slightly
in tandem with some boundary-layer heating, and a recent measured 51
MPH wind gust noted over north-central South Dakota recently
supports this possibility.=20=20

Overall, while WW issuance is not currently expected, we will
continue to monitor both convective and environmental evolution for
signs that watch issuance may become more necessary.

...Goss/Thompson.. 07/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9eRkVXXv9eXNI2XyL9Aogb0wd7j5YJhcZpfDbVZh86dcDk4c-YFWyCzWaDVtkWshXN6VE_Nab=
0K5MZ4HcmT1_yxrDcM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45600133 45870114 45749991 44439789 43889740 43199871
            43939991 45260109 45600133=20


=3D =3D =3D
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