Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 30 2023 00:51:35 ACUS01 KWNS 300051 SWODY1 SPC AC 300049 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND THE HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds remain possible over portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley this evening. Large hail and strong to severe outflow gusts are also possible this evening into tonight across the central/northern High Plains. ....01z Update... Organized convection that developed ahead of a weak short-wave trough is advancing steadily east across southern New England early this evening. Short-wave trough currently extends across NH/CT and this feature will quickly shift east this evening. Organized thunderstorm activity will advance offshore within the next 1-2 hours. Trailing convection, associated with the New England/northern Middle Atlantic trough, arcs across southern VA into northwest SC. Mid-level flow is notably weaker south of the Delmarva but an axis of modest MLCAPE has yet to be overturned ahead of the convection over NC/southeast VA. This activity should propagate slowly southeast over the next few hours before weakening. Gusty winds remain the primary risk through about 03z. Upstream...long-lived MCS that initiated over the central Plains Saturday morning has progressed across the Mid-MS Valley and is now propagating across southwestern IN/western KY. Given the longevity of this activity, it appears 3000 J/kg MLCAPE noted immediately downstream across south-central KY/northern TN will be more than adequate for this complex to persist for several more hours. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit downstream to account for damaging wind potential with this convection. Isolated supercells have developed across the northern High Plains over western ND/northwest SD. This activity has evolved within a strongly sheared and weak warm-advection environment. Scattered convection is now also developing across southern AB into northern MT. Convection may continue to evolve within this warm advection zone after sunset, especially near the AB/MT/SK border; although, much of this activity may congregate just north of the international border. Large hail is likely occurring with the more robust updrafts across the western Dakotas. ...Darrow.. 07/30/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .