Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1781
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 22:55:33

ACUS11 KWNS 292255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292255=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-300130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Southwestern North Dakota and Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 292255Z - 300130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may be possible over the next few
hours posing the risk of large hail and damaging winds.  The
convective evolution is highly uncertain and will be monitored for
the potential of a severe-thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Midlevel convection aided by warm-air advection has
been percolating for a few hours in southwestern North Dakota.
Recent intensification suggests that these storms may have started
ingesting more unstable parcels originating near the surface.=20
Despite modest instability (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE), there is sufficient
deep-layer shear (given the strong veering winds with height) to
support organized rotating updrafts.  In fact, some CAM solutions
have indicated the potential for a couple of long-tracked
supercells, though this scenario still remains highly uncertain.  If
sustained storms are able to develop, they would pose the threat of
large hail and damaging winds.  The situation will continue to be
monitored for the need of a severe-thunderstorm watch.

...Jirak/Grams.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9N2LxT9HLj6JSTj2EdaPGBtMnBAFGCPGIWW8PlCst-UF3b5F4RQtJaV6oiO-ilotR6ep2mkCb=
ZoHyj3qSxRPRCtcAbs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   47240434 47480380 47450297 46070174 45540122 44910104
            44190107 43640143 43410240 43770339 44390395 45470428
            46040440 47240434=20


=3D =3D =3D
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