Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 22:02:09

AWUS01 KWNH 292202
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-300400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0814
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...near the AZ/UT/NV border junction

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292200Z - 300400Z

Summary...Some stationary and training thunderstorms across the
region could lead to additional isolated flash flood concerns over
the next several hours.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave moving
across northern NV.  Precipitable water values near the UT/NV/AZ
border junction are 0.9-1.3", which is enough for issues near area
terrain.  Of more concern is the short training attempt seen just
south of the western border of AZ/UT.  ML CAPE in the area is
250-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE, and rising.  Effective bulk shear is
under 25 kts, so for the most part, convection has been pulse.

Instability should build another 500 J/kg or so through the
afternoon hours.  Hourly rain totals up to 2" are possible where
cells can be tied by terrain, held up by outflow boundaries, or
manage to train/attain some convective structure while oriented
south-southwest to north-northeast.  Southern UT in particular is
sensitive to heavy rainfall due to its dryness.  Urban areas, dry
washes/arroyos, and any slot canyons would be more at risk for
flash flooding.  Eventually, developing CIN will be the limitation
to convective longevity after sunset, which should have developed
by the end of the window used in this MPD.=20

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9hvxw3fi5p8KItiT1n2Tbfmk1DhTEP4yxsdTxLEr0Tgas6-qWFTq00ANezoOfFmW9NWL=
o5-_ekNtHTFl1qsX1C8uyd4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39021313 38441107 36591159 35251200 34691224=20
            34561408 35851566 37401526=20

=3D =3D =3D
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