Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1778
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 21:56:58

ACUS11 KWNS 292156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292156=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-292330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Western North Carolina and far southwest Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570...

Valid 292156Z - 292330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 570
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts
are expected to continue southeast through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Moderate instability exists ahead of a line of storms
now crossing the Appalachians across eastern Tennessee and far
western North Carolina/Virginia. While shear is quite weak ahead of
the line (15 to 20 knots) there is some stronger 4-5km flow (35-40
knots per JKL VWP) upstream. This stronger flow is likely aiding in
organization of the storms and should continue to balance the cold
pool sufficiently for a continued damaging wind threat through the
evening.=20

If this line of storms can maintain intensity and organization as it
moves southeast this evening, a downstream watch may need to be
considered across portions of western and central North Carolina.

...Bentley.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6EmsVXVZg4RLe3bmz4SCGglI-1aCfYa1gQx0t2yBOy_lT52ePBtTCHHhcjop0ndu-PjRupR3a=
-OSOuWH77TeciYIWJw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   34978084 34768135 34538246 34728310 34998351 35378344
            36128315 36708212 37048107 37098041 36787954 36487895
            36077901 35667952 35298017 34978084=20


=3D =3D =3D
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