Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 18:52:36

AWUS01 KWNH 291852
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-300050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0812
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern KY & eastern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291850Z - 300050Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are beginning to expand in coverage across
portions of eastern KY and eastern TN.  Hourly rain totals to 2.5"
with local amounts to 4" are expected.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are forming near a
prefrontal trough -- showing convergence at the surface and 850
hPa and near/east of the Cumberland Plateau.  This activity is
occurring just ahead of a weak shortwave extending from central KY
into western TN, which is aiding divergence aloft.  ML CAPE
2000-3000 J/kg lies across the region.  Effective bulk shear is
approaching 25 kts.  Precipitable water values of 1.75-2" lie
across the region.

The guidance shows an increasing signal for heavy rainfall in this
region over the next several hours which shifts south to southwest
across the region, driven forward by outflow boundaries.  Areas of
eastern TN could see two rounds:  one very early on and a second a
few hours after the first, dropping down from the north.  With the
effective bulk shear available, some organized structure is
possible which could allow for some west-northwest to
east-southeast training.  Flash flood guidance values aren't
exceptionally high, despite dryness over the past week, and could
be breached by an hour or so of training or any cell mergers.  Any
flash flood concerns should be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9CCrk92KaqMjBCXjZOrlBlYm_kfAdiBkGBMesq9-2G9S1L_Jhyk5NrAvZIL3NcCy18Oy=
oVdChiufjGuN87dDAAngFp4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37948589 37948398 37758189 36568170 35438329=20
            35868560 36528628=20

=3D =3D =3D
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