Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1770
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 15:34:28

ACUS11 KWNS 291534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291533=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-291730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...southern New England into parts of eastern New York
and far northern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 291533Z - 291730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A steady increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected
through the afternoon, with locally strong wind gusts becoming more
likely as the airmass destabilizes.  WW issuance will likely be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows partly sunny
conditions across southern New England and into parts of eastern New
York and vicinity.  Daytime heating through late morning has
supported modest destabilization, which will continue into the
afternoon given dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.  As an MCV
now crossing eastern Lake Erie continues to shift eastward, expect
storm coverage to increase as afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rise
into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.

While low-level flow is forecast to remain weaker as compared to
areas farther south, mid-level westerlies near 30 kt will support
potential for organized storms and some upscale growth into
small-scale bands.  Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are expected
with the strongest storms, through the afternoon hours, and this
potential appears sufficient that WW issuance will likely be
required in the next hour.

...Goss/Thompson.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9_zBiBeG-EOK3BhARmYjJvnuR93RGHAlhxYwpzd8EX9bAIvz3b-O650h18St823t6ccpAlxl8=
5ag9hj96bUaeqBUPLU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   42107635 42647656 43097549 43597453 43507321 43597302
            44207138 44187022 43717013 42717064 41526966 41196982
            40337407 41447482 41937547 42107635=20


=3D =3D =3D
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