Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1768
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 11:10:27

ACUS11 KWNS 291110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291109=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-291315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1768
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...South-central and Southeast Nebraska...Far
Northeast Kansas...Northwest and Central Missouri...Far Southwest
Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565...

Valid 291109Z - 291315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 565
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat will likely
develop east-southeastward across southeast Nebraska into northwest
and central Missouri later this morning. Weather watch issuance to
the east of WW 565 will likely need to be considered.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Hastings,
Nebraska shows a well-developed bowing line segment in south-central
Nebraska. This feature is associated with an MCS, that is forecast
to track east-southeastward across southeast Nebraska into northwest
and central Missouri later this morning. The latest WSR-88D VWP at
Hastings has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots.  Forecast soundings for the
same site have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, with MLCAPE near
3000 J/kg. This environment, along with a rear inflow jet evident on
the Hastings radar, will continue to support a wind-damage and
isolated large hail threat with the more intense parts of the line
segment. This buoyant environment appears to extend
east-southeastward into northwest Missouri. At this time, there
appears to be a good chance that the line will remain organized as
it approaches the eastern edge of WW 565.  If this occurs, new
weather watch will likely be needed to the southeast of the current
watch.

...Broyles.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_JMF99JCHbML_ZWPkYBaobwgLGVNAb7iuoIB2_QJNaH2vgXmUmCDaRSbM0qvJ_AxakuWqHnpB=
SZW2_t8wZksvERl9aE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   38909316 38819369 38919438 39209562 39669725 40169904
            40499928 40919926 41359902 41659870 41809853 41919837
            41999794 41999755 41909670 41449446 41069351 40299283
            39319268 38909316=20


=3D =3D =3D
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