Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 10:02:29

AWUS01 KWNH 291002
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-291600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0809
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Georgia, southern South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291000Z - 291600Z

Summary...Deep convection has exhibited a modest increase in
coverage over the past 1-2 hours around a weak tropical wave
centered over southeastern Georgia.  A few hours of heavier
rainfall could result in localized, but isolated flash flood
potential over the next few hours.

Discussion...Over the past 1-2 hours, deep, yet slow-moving
convection has developed around the center of a weak tropical low
over southeastern Georgia.  Areas of hourly rain rates approaching
2 inches was already noted west of Savannah. The convection was
located in an abundantly moist airmass, with PW values exceeding
2.25 inches.  Additionally, MLCAPE values across the discussion
area range from 500 J/kg in inland areas to 2000 J/kg nearer to
the coast.  These values - along with low-level convergence
associated with the tropical low - should promote additional,
persistent heavier downpours at times today.

The convection should occur across areas of FFG thresholds in the
2.5-3 inch/hr and 3-4 inch/3-hr range.  Flash flooding will become
possible as longer-lived convection manages to persist for longer
than an hour. Low-lying and/or urbanized areas could also
experience excessive runoff more readily and with lower rain rates
compared to surrounding areas.

Over time, models/CAMs focus heavier rainfall potential across
areas from just west of Savannah eastward along coastal areas of
South Carolina through 15Z.  These areas will experience the
greatest chance of localized flash flood impacts through that time.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7Q1Es0LWE91DfLca8TqTC0ucliJV0RRr3CqjV7ZYSRela-veOsvawlmSttrsEHOtu_UM=
E5jZz-sgg2cqtNF07aWdbtk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34118001 33977896 33627866 32517960 32118106=20
            31988216 33038268 33658156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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