Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 09:12:58

AWUS01 KWNH 290912
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-291511-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0808
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...northern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, and
eastern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290911Z - 291511Z

Summary...A band of convection across the discussion area is
moving slow enough to encourage 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates in a few
areas.  These rates are enough for potential flash flooding
especially in sensitive areas.

Discussion...Deep convection has gradually increased in coverage
along an axis extending from CLE to EKN over the past couple
hours.  At times, forward progression of this band has been slow
enough to promote spots of higher rain rates locally approaching
1.5 inches/hr.  The band is located on the northeastern edge of an
axis of 25-35 knot westerly flow at 850mb, with convergence along
that axis, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1.9 inch PW values promoting
deep updrafts and efficient rainfall production.  The rain rates
were approaching local FFGs in a few areas, and modest MRMS
responses were also noted beneath the heavier rainfall especially
in northern West Virginia just west of Elkins.

Ongoing trends should continue for another 3-5 hours this morning,
with a gradual eastward translation of the ongoing heavier
rainfall band toward portions of western Pennsylvania.  A mature
MCS across northern through western Ohio was forward propagating
and approaching the current axis of heavier rainfall and may act
as a catalyst for larger-scale convective overturning over time.=20
While this complex should eventually result in a lessened flash
flood risk, there will likely be a window of time between now and
the approach of the MCS where continued convective development and
a few cell mergers will both act to prolong heavier rainfall,
continuing the flash flood risk.  Overall, the peak flash flood
risk with this activity should exist through around 12-14Z, before
lessening thereafter.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6HNzN0ehABnukIhN_2dBz151mHcgS9gj95t6QyaTGN81xECgTur79RvAiNrdAWSrwHRt=
2ueDeC24Zu4p8S0nM4j9u7o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42038141 41998005 40807914 39507868 38897930=20
            38848046 39628172 41738251=20

=3D =3D =3D
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