Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1766
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 08:29:27

ACUS11 KWNS 290829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290828 COR
NEZ000-SDZ000-291045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Far Southern South Dakota...Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 290828Z - 291045Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat may develop across
parts of the central Plains early this morning. Although
conditional, a weather watch could become necessary if further
organization occurs.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from North Platte
shows an MCS over northern Nebraska, with a short line segment in
far southern South Dakota. This convection is located along the
northwestern edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the
RAP has MUCAPE generally in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range. The
instability, combined with large-scale ascent associated with a
shortwave trough in western South Dakota, will continue to provide
support for convective development over the next few hours. The
stronger cells could produce isolated large hail and wind damage.
However, there is substantial CIN to the north and south of the
instability axis. This will confine the severe threat to a somewhat
narrow corridor in northern and central Nebraska, along an
east-southeast oriented gradient of instability.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5zo84KTMc17rovSnJp0KsNv9AMMt39JTELSfahvZIoqgshbyoixjNd0eTW8a5H16WIfE80qcU=
HgEWjKPzQeDtQ1GnGs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42100210 42470232 43030225 43320196 43510127 43109943
            42839804 42569715 42249677 41729674 41339728 41299813
            41489986 41970178 42100210=20


=3D =3D =3D
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