Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 07:35:24

ACUS48 KWNS 290735
SWOD48
SPC AC 290733

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A typical summertime upper pattern is expected for much of the Day
4-8 period. A broad upper anticyclone centered over the
south-central CONUS will be maintained through the end of the week.
An upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies on Day 5/Wed
will flatten the Plains upper ridge as the trough migrates east
along the international border through the end of the period. This
overall pattern will bring some enhanced west/northwest flow to
portions of the northern Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes
vicinity. While large-scale ascent is forecast to remain nebulous,
and mostly confined to Canada, mesoscale perturbations migrating
through modest mid/upper flow could support areas of strong to
severe thunderstorms from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
vicinity. However, predictability in this pattern is low, with
severe potential mostly remaining tied to mesoscale features (MCVs,
outflow, etc) from prior days' convection. While specific areas are
difficult to highlight at this timescale, some sporadic severe
potential may develop each day.

...Leitman.. 07/29/2023

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