Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1765
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 05:58:24

ACUS11 KWNS 290558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290557=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Areas affected...Indiana...Ohio...Southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563...

Valid 290557Z - 290800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat will continue for several
more hours across northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan. The
threat is also expected to impact northwestern Ohio within an hour
or so. If convective trends suggest that the severe threat will
continue into central Ohio, a new watch will need to be considered
to the southeast of the current watch.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Indianapolis
shows a large-scale bowing line segment from northwest Indiana
extending southwestward into eastern Illinois. The line is moving
east-southeastward at near 40 knots, along the northern edge of a
pocket of moderate instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the
2000 to 2500 J/kg range within this pocket. The instability,
combined with large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough,
evident on water vapor imagery, will be favorable for continued
severe storm development over the next few hours. Wind damage will
be the primary threat, although hail will also be possible with the
stronger cores. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected from
northeast Indiana into west-central Ohio. A hail threat will also
exist along a wing of warm advection associated with convection in
southeast lower Michigan.

...Broyles.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_wtD9igNl9nkAZy05QMuMGlLjQN4x7OKL-4BiAC-i7CanWNBRu3VY6fBskh5l-wYg35-beH8s=
mI02x0d_iTude3tnbM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
LOT...

LAT...LON   42668494 42778575 42688638 42048656 41478692 40898740
            40418713 39958632 39428436 39078289 39128217 39418160
            39888137 40168139 40788176 41648284 42668494=20


=3D =3D =3D
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