Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 05:49:26 ACUS01 KWNS 290549 SWODY1 SPC AC 290548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over southern New England into the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday. A few strong/severe storms may also be noted across the central High Plains. Damaging gusts are the primary hazard, though hail is possible across the Plains. ....New England/Middle Atlantic... Several notable short-wave troughs will translate across the Great Lakes into New England during the day1 period as the primary trough is expected to hold over Hudson Bay into the OH Valley. One such feature is currently ejecting across Lake MI and this short wave will advance into western NY/PA early in the period. Strong boundary-layer heating across northeast PA into the lower Hudson Valley should prove adequate for modest buoyancy by midday as 500mb flow strengthens ahead of the disturbance. Forecast soundings suggest convection should readily develop by midday, aided in part by large-scale forcing, but driven in large part by diurnal heating. Damaging winds should be the primary risk with convection that spreads toward southern New England by late afternoon. ....Central Plains... Early this morning, scattered convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage across the High Plains from northeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Latest NAM is fairly aggressive in allowing this activity to grow upscale through sunrise Saturday. Subsequent movement toward northeast KS/northwest MO is forecast by mid afternoon. If this occurs, there is some concern that organized convection could evolve along the leading edge of a potential early-day MCS. If so, higher severe probabilities may be needed. Otherwise, pressure rises across the northern Plains will force a surface front to arc across northern KS into northeast CO. Strong heating southwest of this boundary, combined with orographic forcing, is expected to contribute to scattered convection by late afternoon. Forecast soundings across the central High Plains, immediately downstream of the higher terrain, suggest isolated supercells could evolve then propagate southeast along the aforementioned frontal corridor. Hail/wind would be possible with this diurnally driven activity. LLJ may strengthen a bit across western KS during the evening hours. This could allow convection to organize somewhat as it propagates toward the CO/KS border after sunset. ...Darrow/Bentley.. 07/29/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .