Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 02:44:52

ACUS11 KWNS 290244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290244=20
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-290445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1764
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern Wisconsin into southwest Lower
Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561...

Valid 290244Z - 290445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561
continues.

SUMMARY...As numerous areas of storms evolve across the region,
trends will be monitored for additional strengthening which may
necessitate the need for another watch downstream into parts of
western Lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION...A severe MCS is moving out of IA into northwest IL,
intersection a zone of storms associated with lake breeze and
otherwise warm advection convection across far northern IL and into
IN. To the north, an organized line of storms continues eastward
across southern WI, and has picked up speed, aided by 40-50 kt
midlevel wind speeds.

The combination of numerous storms in the warm advection zone may
decrease severe potential for areas to the north to a degree, as
return flow of higher theta-e air will be limited. However, the
organized nature of the existing line of storms moving across
southern WI, as well as gradual height falls on the large scale, may
combine with sufficient instability (even if effectively elevated)
to sustain the existing MCS, with damaging gusts possible.

If the southern WI MCS weakens as it approaches the lake shore, a
watch may not be needed into Lower MI. As such, trends will continue
to be monitored for changes in intensity.

...Jewell/Grams.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9lEim8AHIBOKV_8mh8bTQ-9qo_F-zHlsUxBT9QiyE697Xf7Kns2uml7VtTVSyyOJYaQsPY79P=
E8qDl1GDrmFBV7B5os$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON   43189011 43388961 43638919 43728896 43628816 43398714
            43158625 42888550 42488524 41958538 41788570 41758658
            42018711 42278764 42458833 42508876 42618955 42759001
            42939019 43189011=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.