Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 00:54:52

ACUS01 KWNS 290054
SWODY1
SPC AC 290053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA TO NORTHERN INDIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms will spread across southern Wisconsin/northeast Iowa
across northern Illinois into northwest Indiana/southwest WI.
Damaging winds and large hail will be noted with this activity.

....01z Update...

Weak short-wave trough has crested the high-plains ridge and is
digging east-southeast across the upper MS Valley toward WI/northern
IL. Deep convection has matured ahead of this feature with several
large complexes currently noted over WI into northeast IA. Low-level
warm advection is focused along a corridor from southern WI into
northern IN (currently identifiable by scattered weak convection).
Latest model guidance suggests 20-30kt 850mb flow will impinge on a
boundary draped across this region. This should encourage ongoing
activity to spread/develop southeast over the next several hours,
possibly growing upscale into one or more larger MCSs. Damaging
winds appear likely with these complexes as they propagate
southeast. Large hail should also be noted, especially over the next
few hours before MCSs become more wind dominated.

Farther southwest across the central Plains, surface temperatures
have warmed above 100F across northern KS immediately ahead of the
surface front. Several readings exceeded 105F and this contributed
to high-based convection that is drifting southeast. Gusty winds are
certainly possible with these storms given the 40F+ temperature/dew
point spreads.

...Darrow.. 07/29/2023

$$

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