Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 00:46:49

AWUS01 KWNH 290046
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-290645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0805
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...portions of the GA & SC coastal plain

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290045Z - 290645Z

Summary...Thunderstorms associated with a small warm core low have
become more efficient from a rainfall perspective as of late
closer to its center.  Hourly rain totals to 3" and local amounts
to 6" are possible.

Discussion...A small low pressure system has seen convection wax
and wane today near its center as it has moved north-northwest,
with the heaviest rainfall more persistent within its
tail/trailing rain band over portions of FL this afternoon and
evening.  Its banding in particular has shown signs of flaring
back up as of late near and offshore the GA coast.  Precipitable
water values are 2.25-2.5".  Effective bulk shear approaches 25
kts, which has occasionally led to small bands around the
immediate center and along its inflow band organizing at times,
though there have been indications of pulse nature when outflow
boundaries have shifted the position of the banding a little from
time to time.  Low-level inflow slightly exceeds the mean 850-400
hPa wind, which is typical of warm core low.  ML CAPE is 1500-2500
J/kg offshore the GA & SC coasts.

The 18z HREF has had a decent handle on the location of the heavy
rain signal, though the individual pieces of guidance have been
generally low on magnitude thus far.  Hourly rain totals to 3"
with local amounts to 6" should remain possible in association
with this low.  There is some indication in the guidance that the
areal extent of the heavy rainfall should broaden somewhat with
time, particularly in and near the southern and middle SC coast
towards the end of the horizon of this MPD, an area which has seen
200-400% of its average rainfall this past week.  Some of the
region is swampy/marshy, thus heavy rain-related issues should be
confined to urban areas.=20

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8ZYizPAzrlAFeWtKWIGqDJ1W3XVvBhY1pfTVlCl0X4HxWgdDPBVDQ_MDcxHW6EAXK5_R=
BHRPwHVfU6JE3a2BvP1QrKE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33527991 33117923 32328039 31428119 31268170=20
            31528213 32188210 32828164 33328076=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.