Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1762
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 00:39:19

ACUS11 KWNS 290039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290038=20
OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-290215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1762
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...northern Indiana into western Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 290038Z - 290215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe weather threat will exist for the next
1 to 2 hours. A greater severe weather threat exists later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across northern Indiana in
the last 30 minutes in a region of weak isentropic ascent along the
frontal boundary. This storm activity is likely aided by moisture
pooling along the front with upper 70s to near 80 dewpoints in the
area with thunderstorms. There is enough mid-level flow on the KIWX
VWP to support the potential for some supercells and a hail threat,
at least initially. The greatest question will be if there is enough
forcing in this region to support an organized severe threat in the
next 1 to 2 hours.

Regardless of the evolution of this early activity, a severe
thunderstorm watch will eventually be needed across this area later
this evening as storms to the northwest congeal into a MCS which is
expected to move into the area with a damaging wind threat.

...Bentley/Grams.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9EHxSVtSdYd8RcaNgF_fFg22DWU0B56RR7BUwEfWa033a_sjOuRga8wL4Dg5uKR5BktEXUwdX=
sJmDknaKfFZ3n4pAAs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41328746 41828660 41578487 40888344 39668351 40298576
            40978717 41328746=20


=3D =3D =3D
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