Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1761
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 29 2023 00:21:49

ACUS11 KWNS 290021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290021=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-290245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...much of northern Illinois into eastern Iowa and
northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 290021Z - 290245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail will increase out
of eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin into much of northern
Illinois this evening

DISCUSSION...A substantial cluster of storms, including supercells
at times, extends from northeast IA into far southwest WI. The air
mass is extremely moist and unstable, and the influence of an upper
wave will be felt across the area with time. Precipitable water of
1.75-2.00" along with MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg will favor substantial
downdraft potential. Deep-layer shear is averaging 30-35 kt but
speeds will increase into the upper levels as well, elongating
hodographs and also favoring hail production with the stronger
storms. Winds around 850 mb will increase in speeds out the west
over time as well, which may aid northeastward transport of high
theta-e ahead of the developing storm clusters.

...Jewell/Grams.. 07/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8DATFIy_sXu58_bOdCbs-numrbbiOTAfxApTxSAPx93KVHP1Mo-5Zx5eA2Bz5z9PGaO6U9zam=
td3Y0cJhZgk6AMNcwA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42729038 42478871 42158771 41738693 41128690 40648704
            40438763 40529046 40649147 40809206 41319214 41929182
            42409121 42729038=20


=3D =3D =3D
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