Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1754
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 20:55:48

ACUS11 KWNS 282055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282055=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-282230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE into IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 282055Z - 282230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms should increase during the next
couple of hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the
area.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (upper 70s to
near 80s surface dewpoints) beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse
rates is underway from parts of eastern NE into IA -- along and
south of a WSW/ENE-oriented stationary boundary. Over parts of
eastern NE, gradually deepening boundary-layer cumulus suggests
isolated convective initiation is possible during the next hour or
two. Farther east, cumulus development remains shallow -- suggesting
lingering inhibition at the base of the EML.=20

Continued heating and eroding inhibition in the vicinity of the
stationary boundary should support isolated thunderstorm development
in the next couple of hours, and 40-50 kt of effective shear will
support discrete/semi-discrete supercells given the extremely
unstable surface-based instability. The primary concerns will very
large hail and severe gusts. Generally weak large-scale ascent and
the lingering inhibition casts uncertainty on storm coverage, though
trends are being monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6X0K6Ox-AeLd0sDJL7Y19ucOofSGdMeY8wDyhIjlG0WkH5WLedDqKxJDIY3bVX-vQcsmrdo3i=
UK6PIi3pB6asnuCtFU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41599899 42159834 43209639 43469416 43339194 42039214
            41439624 40649797 40839888 41599899=20


=3D =3D =3D
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