Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1752
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 20:12:18

ACUS11 KWNS 282012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282012=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...WV into eastern OH...western PA/MD/VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557...

Valid 282012Z - 282145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 557
continues.

SUMMARY...Some damaging-wind threat may spread eastward into this
evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible depending on
short-term convective trends.

DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a long-lived storm cluster has
remained vigorous this afternoon across western WV, with a 54 kt
gust recently reported at KCRW. Deep-layer shear remains weak
downstream, but favorable thermodynamics (with MLCAPE of greater
than 2000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates), along with a
reasonably well-organized cold pool (with 40+ kt noted in the 1-3 km
layer in the KRLX VWP immediately behind the line), will continue to
support a damaging-wind threat into central/eastern WV and
potentially western VA. While the typical uncertainty remains
regarding the persistence of an organized severe threat across the
higher terrain, downstream watch issuance is possible late this
afternoon, depending on short-term convective trends.=20

Farther north, convection has largely weakened, though one isolated
cell is noted in northwest PA. Renewed convection could still
redevelop along the gust front as it spreads across western PA, with
some lingering damaging-wind threat potentially lasting into early
evening.

...Dean/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7MJP4gOW_DyKFvZAu_VUVivJdW_rNgeSe0L0ltD1wXxu6gSAy1xmwfsOT72Vh80Pr7gJSz0BY=
OKJPWtM9bgBuGtbdbE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...

LAT...LON   37578204 39028111 40298089 41298064 41587985 41537922
            41357857 40937853 40157866 38497962 37328021 37218085
            37328150 37578204=20


=3D =3D =3D
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