Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1751
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 19:39:50

ACUS11 KWNS 281939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281939=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-282215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southwest and central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281939Z - 282215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and locally severe gusts
will increase during the next couple of hours. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery indicates a vorticity
maximum lifting northeastward across parts of south-central Idaho --
embedded in a belt of 40-kt midlevel southwesterlies (per regional
VWP data). As related DCVA overspreads a diurnally destabilizing
boundary layer in western and eventually central Montana, a few
organized high-based storms will be possible given around 40-50 kt
of effective shear. Isolated large hail is the primary concern with
this activity given favorable/strengthening deep-layer shear
profiles and adequate buoyancy through the hail growth zone, though
inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will also support locally severe
gusts -- especially with any clusters that evolve.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6N480jKmP0EKh8EniUG0ocyToXHYRacIrjHbHJ3uymDZXDRMgGCwxrXyvzEYjTlH94WKqVcb8=
nmqhp5FWZ_j1GA3uNk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   44771176 44801273 44981328 45611395 46201404 46591368
            47011222 47161123 47310979 47330826 46720755 45840759
            45300836 45050937 44951045 44771176=20


=3D =3D =3D
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