Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1748
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 16:35:48

ACUS11 KWNS 281635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281635=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-281800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1748
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Central/eastern OH into northeast KY and western
WV/PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281635Z - 281800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging-wind threat may spread eastward this
afternoon. Watch issuance is possible, depending on trends regarding
storm organization.

DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to regenerate along the
outflow associated with a long-lived storm cluster and MCV through
the morning. These storms have generally been subsevere over the
last several hours, though a small inflection in the line and some
rotation have recently been noted southwest of Columbus. An
additional uptick in storm intensity will be possible this
afternoon, as diurnal heating of a moist environment results in
MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg.

Wind profiles ahead of the convective line (as noted in VWPs from
CLE and CMH) are rather weak, though the ILN VWP suggests that
somewhat stronger flow (30-40 kt in the 1-3 km layer) resides near
and behind the line. Some threat for isolated damaging wind will
likely persist this afternoon given the rather favorable
thermodynamic environment, but uncertainty remains regarding how
organized the threat will be this afternoon, given the rather weak
background flow/shear. If an increase in storm organization is noted
early this afternoon, then watch issuance will become possible.

...Dean/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Er-606eGoTfXHqxJJc3aQH2TDRzdtRdl1gg3IVWZybSoUJj8LgQVHe_phhbSB1yoNxw-eokw=
tEqY03OsURxa9hpdyM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38248435 40358321 41438250 41918090 41998036 40338044
            39448083 38498146 37938223 37748251 37618330 37978414
            38248435=20


=3D =3D =3D
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