Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1746
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 07:53:47

ACUS11 KWNS 280753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280752=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-280945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1746
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Far Southeast Wisconsin...Northeast
Illinois...Northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 280752Z - 280945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue for a
couple more hours across northeast Illinois and may impact
northwestern Indiana as well. However, the threat is expected to be
too marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Chicago shows a
convective line over northern Illinois, moving eastward at about 35
knots. This line is located along the northern edge of an axis of
moderate instability, where MUCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be
near 4000 J/kg. This, along with lift associated with a shortwave
trough (evident on water vapor imagery) will support continued
convective development. An isolated wind-damage threat will likely
exist along the leading edge of the line. As the line moves eastward
toward the Chicago Metro over the next hours, an outflow boundary
will move southward across far northeastern Illinois. This outflow
boundary should move through the northern and central Chicago Metro
before the convection impacts the area. This, along with weak
low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCIN (evident on RAP forecast
soundings), could temper the wind-damage threat some. Due to these
reasons, weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 07/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8lSFHS6u6f4iub6ijwZDvXd33Jp17aK-YVxlPkKwg5LyzoEsjrNTJpopPoZhJHBC9TQ0X4Syd=
05vY--egQw5MXvIdww$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42678858 42638904 42278923 41638925 40848902 40308818
            40258729 40488661 40928645 41358665 42368782 42528813
            42678858=20


=3D =3D =3D
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