Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 07:33:15 ACUS03 KWNS 280733 SWODY3 SPC AC 280732 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MISSOURI OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the Missouri Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley, as well as over the northern and into the north-central High Plains. ....Synopsis... A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over southern CO with a ridge northward through WY/MT and into Alberta/Saskatchewan. A mean mid-level trough will reside over the Great Lakes/Northeast on Sunday. Weak impulses embedded within northwesterly flow from the northern Great Plains to the Mid South will potentially be focusing features for thunderstorm activity. ....MO Ozarks into the TN Valley... A remnant frontal zone will become draped northwest to southeast over this region on Sunday. A very moist airmass will quickly destabilize coincident with strong heating. Some model guidance indicates a chance for morning showers/thunderstorms over the lower MO Valley from lingering Saturday night thunderstorms over the central Great Plains. There is substantial uncertainty regarding this scenario, but a frontal zone may focus additional storms. Forecast soundings show weak northwesterly flow which will aid in storm movement to the southeast. Isolated, locally severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms. This activity will likely dissipate during the early evening. ....Northern High Plains into the north-central High Plains... Easterly low-level flow is forecast as a surface high is progged over southern Canada. A moisture plume in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone will destabilize during the day. Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop both near a surface trough over central MT by the late afternoon, near terrain-favored locales (i.e., Big Horns, Black Hills), but also perhaps Sunday night within a zone of weak warm-air advection over eastern MT/western Dakotas. Isolated instances of large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Smith.. 07/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .