Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 06:41:37

AWUS01 KWNH 280641
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-281226-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0801
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...southwestern Ohio, north-central Kentucky, and
southeastern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280626Z - 281226Z

Summary...Locally significant flash flood potential continues for
at least another 3-6 hours (through 09-12Z).

Discussion...A mature cold pool has become established along a
north-south axis generally located from near MIE to near LEX.=20
Along this axis, repeated deep convective development was noted.=20
Modest west-southwesterly low-level flow (around 20 knots) was
depicted per SPC mesoanalysis, allowing for sustained low-level
convergence along the leading edge of the cold pool and inflow of
very strong instability (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) into that axis of
convergence.  With weak upper-level flow noted, storms have been
able to move slowly eastward while backbuilding along the
boundary, allowing for lengthy (1-3 hour) periods of 1-2.5 inch/hr
rain rates.  Considerable MRMS Flash responses have also been
noted and flash flood impacts have also been observed near the
Cincinnati area.

Unfortunately, very high surface dewpoints west of the cold pool
(75-80F) were allowing for minimal cooling away from
precipitation, and surface-based updrafts should be supported
through much of the overnight hours.  Latest thinking is that
continued backbuilding of convection should continue for a few
more hours - and perhaps through 12Z.  This regime supports
continued 1-3 hour periods of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates,
potentially allowing for 3-6 inch totals in a few locales.  Flash
flooding is likely to continue in this regime.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!68fYq6cmXWKO3R_j7xSD82RcgZRAkeEvX3bPmsU6S5c36MG2fuuYI-u49iC1wJDzqBKN=
iOSEX5gWEpzEhajf5mooR10$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40898499 40238362 38858356 37738375 37138502=20
            38078654 39458638 40628575=20

=3D =3D =3D
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