Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 03:55:02

AWUS01 KWNH 280354
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-280853-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0800
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1154 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...southern Minnesota, central/southern Wisconsin,
far northern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280353Z - 280853Z

Summary...Flash flooding potential should continue through 06-07Z
or so, though this risk should become more isolated with time.

Discussion...A mature MCS across southern MN and central WI
produced several areas of heavier rainfall (including 1-2 inch/hr
rates and a few local impacts) across northwestern Wisconsin
earlier.  Since that time, storms have picked up southeasterly
forward speed in tandem with upscale growth, with only localized
areas of 1+ inch/hr rainfall rates across west-central WI and
southern MN.  The localized areas of heavier rainfall are located
on the western flank of the ongoing MCS, where deep convection has
persisted amid slower storm motions and strong instability (2000+
J/kg MLCAPE) and modest low-level convergence along the nose of a
30+ kt southwesterly low-level jet over Iowa.  With locally heavy
rainfall persisting (and threatening local FFG thresholds
especially in Minnesota), isolated flash flooding remains possible
in the short term.

Through the night, continued low-level stabilization will result
in a gradual decrease in convective coverage through 09Z.  There
will still be a localized flash flood risk with any persistent
deep convection, however.  The presence of an upstream mid-level
shortwave trough over South Dakota, low-level flow over
Iowa/southern Minnesota, and a lingering boundary from the ongoing
MCS over Wisconsin may support added, yet isolated convective
development through the night.  Flash flood potential will focus
around areas of training/persisting heavy rainfall and/or
urbanized/sensitive areas.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!42yYySv0GF26IoPtaNqDxZ9KrQyiqdoWptP89vFG4_AE-AocsTQgLR_KU-GrLB8CmRpz=
uadA24E9M4lghyEoefTqxus$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...FSD...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45809388 45439171 44288912 42798949 43149139=20
            43369558 44029620 44809587 45399523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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