Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1744
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 28 2023 00:06:13

ACUS11 KWNS 280006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280005=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-280130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern MN into
northern/central WI and the U.P. of MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554...556...

Valid 280005Z - 280130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554, 556
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and severe hail should
continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster is ongoing across northern WI and
adjacent parts of the U.P of MI. Damaging winds should remain the
primary threat with this convection as it spreads east-southeastward
over the next couple of hours. A slightly less unstable airmass is
present over northeastern WI and Lake Michigan, so eventual
weakening of the cluster should occur later this evening with
eastward extent. Additional, more cellular convection persists
across parts of central/eastern MN into northwestern WI. Most of
this activity is occurring on outflow from the ongoing cluster, with
one persistent supercell continuing southwest of the Twin Cities.
Occasional severe hail should be the main threat with these
supercells in the short term, as a favorable thermodynamic/kinematic
environment remains in place across much of central/eastern MN where
the airmass has not been convectively overturned. The potential for
these supercells to persist beyond the scheduled expiration of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554 (02Z/9 PM CDT) is uncertain given
nebulous forcing and the lack of a substantial low-level jet
increase forecast this evening. An extension in time for an hour or
two may eventually be needed if observational trends warrant closer
to 02Z.

...Gleason.. 07/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Vc0lMv22uropT3Yt4ZDJOaSrbIZtwM5frWKx-0Rt-om53YhX_9wFpGSpfGXhszzEqagtwy5T=
HrZfTAdtvfl_iuAmfQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44539497 46159373 45629026 46808908 46158701 44478759
            44198978 44729254 44539497=20


=3D =3D =3D
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