Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1742
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 27 2023 21:37:39

ACUS11 KWNS 272137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272136=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1742
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern MN into northern/central WI and
the U.P. of MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554...

Valid 272136Z - 272300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds will likely
spread eastward over the next couple of hours. Downstream watch
issuance will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are ongoing this afternoon across
parts of northwestern WI and east-central MN. Multiple measured
severe hail reports of 1 to 2 inches have occurred with this
activity. Recent radar trends show some updraft interactions, and
the beginning stages of clustering/upscale growth may continue.
Regardless, a continued threat for large to very large hail will
persist in the short term, as strong instability (3000-3500+ J/kg of
MLCAPE) and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear prove favorable for robust
updrafts. A tornado also appears possible in the short term as well,
mainly across northwestern WI where low-level shear is maximized in
the presence of ongoing supercells. The threat for severe/damaging
winds will likely increase this evening as thunderstorm clusters
move eastward across northern/central WI and the U.P. of MI. The
eastern extent of the severe threat remains somewhat unclear, as
less instability is present towards Lake Michigan. Still, downstream
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be required for the
increasing hail/wind threat.

...Gleason/Grams.. 07/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-FZXb6_wVdjytW-eZ74wVEi5pmJoqmK368Z9KdZCQXeCmYgm_jCNRXQQdtsH1MkN0BV_2jwvb=
W6IUbRokW0Ko79WHvw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45399286 46119335 46859154 46878924 46508761 46018731
            45228747 44478816 44459035 44729160 45399286=20


=3D =3D =3D
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