Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1741
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 27 2023 20:47:11

ACUS11 KWNS 272047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272046=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-272215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1741
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...Parts of PA into northern MD/VA...eastern
WV...DC...Northern DE...NJ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555...

Valid 272046Z - 272215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 555
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may gradually increase into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Late this afternoon, convection is gradually deepening
along two corridors across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic. The
southernmost corridor is a broadly confluent zone from southwest PA
into northern MD, within a region of somewhat greater low/midlevel
moisture. Storms have been gradually intensifying along this
corridor, where deep-layer shear is rather weak, but sufficient for
a modestly organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind in the
presence of moderate buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates. An
uptick in the damaging-wind threat is possible along this corridor
as storm coverage gradually increases into early evening.=20

Farther north, increasing cumulus is noted along a diffuse surface
boundary from western into northeast PA, with storms gradually
developing from northeast to southwest. Deep-layer shear is
generally rather weak in this area as well, though low/midlevel flow
gradually increases with eastward extent, in closer proximity to a
departing mid/upper-level shortwave trough across New England.
Isolated storms may develop as far west as west-central PA, but
somewhat greater coverage is expected across eastern PA into this
evening. Steepened low-level lapse rates will support at least a
localized damaging-wind threat with any stronger storms across this
area.

...Dean.. 07/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-dkR18ITq9GlTcrtga0F8ZJljCyy6hFRDYFjzKZX9DmwfzSKd2vgKuOeBHGvQxnc8dz-STJVH=
ev4RszY6lN0VyiWLz4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   40737782 41257625 41147538 40967440 39637470 39117633
            38777736 38727873 38787916 39837958 40737782=20


=3D =3D =3D
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