Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1740
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 27 2023 20:21:10

ACUS11 KWNS 272021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272020=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...Northeast PA into southern New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553...

Valid 272020Z - 272145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 553
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may increase through late
afternoon. A brief tornado or two will also remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Multiple small storm clusters have developed this
afternoon from northeast PA into southern NY/New England, with a
couple of marginal supercells noted farther north into southern NH.
Low-level flow has tended to veer with the passage of a
mid/upper-level shortwave and attendant surface low into northern
New England. However, relatively backed flow is still noted from
southern ME into southeast NH, and low-level shear/SRH remains
sufficient to support a brief tornado threat if any additional
supercells develop within the gradually destabilizing environment.=20

Farther southwest, a tendency for more unidirectional southwesterly
flow is less favorable for discrete storms, but more favorable for
outflow-driven clusters capable of damaging winds, especially where
stronger heating has resulted in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg into
parts of MA and northern CT. A 57 kt gust was recently observed in
western MA at KBAF, with other reports of wind damage recently
received across southwest MA. In addition to the wind threat, 30-40
kt flow just above the surface may also provide sufficient low-level
shear for a brief tornado threat with any embedded circulations in
this area.

...Dean.. 07/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-IHli4xtFyz6TYSFTdm7_5Nfkd64beM0YiAhiEDXplI9cSqt7hNRP1t7wmc9A1uDLyYTASZDF=
yw1HkJmNBV41xFfQdg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   41717064 41127459 41377637 41597619 42197327 42987192
            44307038 44666933 44406871 43876861 43596957 43157023
            42547051 42157070 41717064=20


=3D =3D =3D
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