Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1739
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 27 2023 19:17:09

ACUS11 KWNS 271917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271916=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-272115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1739
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...Central Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271916Z - 272115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An west to east boundary draped across the Ohio River
Valley from Indianapolis to area south of the Pittsburgh Metro has
been the focus of convective development in the last couple of
hours. Storm development has been initially slow with relative weak
forcing, however strong daytime heating has allowed for MLCAPE
around 3000-4000 J/kg to develop across southern Indiana and Ohio
into northern Kentucky. Additional development may occur through the
afternoon and may intensify quickly given the very moist/unstable
thermodynamic environment. Though conditions are very unstable, weak
flow aloft will likely reduce potential for a more organized severe
threat. However, DCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is noted across much of
southern IN/OH into northern Kentucky. If storms can congeal along
outflow, damaging wind potential may increase. This scenario is
suggested in some CAM guidance across southern IN/northern KY.
Otherwise, mainly isolated severe downbursts and severe hail will
remain the main threats. Trends are being monitored but a watch is
unlikely at this time.

...Thornton/Hart.. 07/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4v57rOP_2m18Zpt5YhlaDdCITBkkwsi48PKNWr7dsgyJXv63FoHVjPlS6pkAoAnvdhOMzTmGn=
MqdqsOyMUTD9zGeCmo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   38428637 38788684 39278716 39858729 39918707 39928657
            39818547 39718358 39778243 39898172 39988107 40088056
            40128013 40167981 40177939 40207907 40177874 40007863
            39967859 39297918 38927973 38688019 38528127 38398192
            38328269 37958372 37818452 37898513 37978570 38428637=20


=3D =3D =3D
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