Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1738
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 27 2023 18:47:39

ACUS11 KWNS 271847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271847=20
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...central/southern Minnesota...northern
Wisconsin...far western northern Michigan Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 271847Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and large hail threat increasing. A watch
will likely be needed in the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows agitated cumulus development
along a pseudo warm front/stationary front boundary across central
Minnesota amid dew points in the mid 70s to 80s. Potential for
earlier storm development than advertised in morning CAM guidance is
possible. Surface objective analysis indicates the mid-level CAP has
weakened, with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg across central Minnesota
into Wisconsin and the Upper Michigan Peninsula. Deep layer shear
around 40-50 kts in association with enhanced mid to upper level
flow is noted across much of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
Initial cell development is likely to include a few discrete
supercells, capable of very large hail (some instances 2+ in) and
damaging wind. Through the late afternoon/early evening, discrete
cells that can track along the warm front may pose a risk of a
tornado as well. Storms will likely attempt upscale growth as the
front sags southward through the evening. Potential for damaging
winds will increase. A watch will likely be needed within the next
hour.

...Thornton/Hart.. 07/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8R29Rfx12U2-c13krbo6jOOmvkjjkfkzXzQUdIB3J-951V9jh6978AV8GuZdIsEuYaPSFUXv2=
QttvN5s6Uwd4Griy_c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46479538 46749485 46969421 47099365 47289286 47319226
            47329189 47259117 47119036 46928979 46608944 46148906
            45638898 45248914 44898936 44908954 45069089 45199206
            45209334 45249447 45489588 46479538=20


=3D =3D =3D
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