Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1736
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 27 2023 15:05:38

ACUS11 KWNS 271505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271505=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-271700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1736
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...NY Hudson Valley into parts of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 271505Z - 271700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will
increase later today. Watch issuance is likely by late morning or
early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across
northern NY this morning, and will approach northern New England by
early afternoon. In conjunction with this shortwave, a weak surface
low will move across northern NY/VT, as rich low-level moisture
streams northeastward into a larger portion of New England. The 13
UTC sounding from SUNY-Albany depicts a favorable wind profile for
organized convection, with rather strong midlevel flow and
deep-layer shear, but also very weak midlevel lapse rates.=20

Despite the weak lapse rates and rather widespread cloudiness,
modest boundary-layer heating/moistening and ascent attendant to the
shortwave trough will likely support deepening convection by early
afternoon across the region. With weak instability, it may take some
time for storms to mature, but a few supercells and organized
clusters may evolve with time. Rather strong low-level flow will
support a damaging-wind threat, especially where somewhat stronger
heating can occur. Also, while the strongest low-level shear/SRH
will tend to be somewhat displaced from the more favorable
instability, a tornado or two will also be possible, given the
potential for supercells within a very moist and favorably shear
environment.=20

Watch issuance is likely by late morning or early afternoon in order
to address these threats.

...Dean/Hart.. 07/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8TJcti4P9SYHalstI3zkDKdB-RezAyHNu1y_ExK1UfT5hpQLFKdzMvTDh2T-j4-PS9RVPrei0=
NgJo2aYnseIuXrXcLE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   42087062 41727220 41687345 41827405 42217428 42837443
            44167188 44027103 43437049 43147060 42087062=20


=3D =3D =3D
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