Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 27 2023 00:59:34 ACUS01 KWNS 270059 SWODY1 SPC AC 270058 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible from southern Lower Michigan across northern Ohio and into far western New York and western Pennsylvania. A few storms may also produce strong gusts or hail over parts of the Dakotas and from Colorado into northwest Kansas. ....Lower MI...OH...Lake Erie Area... Storms associated with a shortwave trough currently extend from southeast Lower MI into northwest OH, just behind a leading MCS now stretching from far western NY into northwest PA. An unstable air mass exists along the southern flanks of these systems, with a feed of moist and unstable air from the southwest. The eastern extent of the most unstable air extends as far east as the OH/PA border, and this zone is not expected to shift eastward very much this evening. The environment from far southern Lower MI into parts of OH remain unstable, although slightly cooler surface air exists from earlier outflow. Overall instability and shear remain favorable to either sustain a small MCS, or support isolated supercells. However, recent trends in storm mode suggest the threat is decreasing overall, though sufficient for a Slight Risk to remain. For more information see MCD 1743. ....Northern and central Plains... Widely spaced cells currently stretch from the central Dakotas into NE and eastern CO along a weak surface trough/wind shift. Isolated severe hail will remain possible for a few hours from the Dakotas into far western MN where modest deep-layer shear exists on the southern periphery of a shortwave trough over SK and MB. Otherwise, clusters of storms may yield severe hail or wind gusts through late evening with storms moving slowly out of CO and into NE/KS where greater instability remains. ...Jewell.. 07/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .