Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1730
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 20:57:32

ACUS11 KWNS 262057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262057=20
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois...northern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262057Z - 262200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional severe threat over the next 1-2 hours. Area is
being monitored for watch potential.

DISCUSSION...A conditional severe threat will be possible this
afternoon across the Chicago Metro into northern Indiana. A remnant
outflow boundary located across the northern Chicago metro into
northern Indiana may be the focus of potential development of
supercells this afternoon. The air mass has seen some recovery after
morning convection but mid-level capping remains, as observed from
ACARS soundings out of the Chicago-Midway Airport. A vort max is
moving swiftly over Lake Michigan. Visible satellite has shown a
persistent cu field with some agitation noted in the last hour to
hour and half which may indicate some weakening in the cap.
Satellite also shows drier mid-level air is moving in from the west
with evidence of mixing. Confidence in development remains low at
this time, given time of day and the quick movement of the vort max.
However, should supercells develop and track along the boundary,
strong deep layer shear does support a conditional risk severe
storms including tornadoes. Trends in this area are be monitored
closely for watch potential.

...Thornton/Hart.. 07/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7u3D0xN49UPUaDSQjKIg3nxm732bDT4ekMQTu1WC4yZ1FFR33bPA-_OXMCoZJ13C3eIodWmw8=
tBkVCq-37grpcw8HYM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

LAT...LON   42058619 41868603 41748599 41538604 41308615 41198653
            41138689 41148730 41208758 41408795 41838812 41988816
            42138818 42318821 42418822 42478802 42448780 42408770
            42278739 42058619=20


=3D =3D =3D
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