Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1728
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 20:36:31

ACUS11 KWNS 262036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262035=20
PAZ000-OHZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...North-central/northeast OH into northwest PA...Lake
Erie

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551...

Valid 262035Z - 262200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado
will spread eastward into this evening. Watch expansion or new watch
issuance into far northeast OH and northwest PA is possible.

DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a QLCS that recently produced
measured severe gusts near Detroit has recently intensified across
northwest OH and adjacent portions of Lake Erie. While deep-layer
flow/shear is not quite as strong compared to areas farther
north/west, a favorable thermodynamic environment will support
maintenance of this QLCS over the next 1-2 hours, as storms move
into an environment characterized by warm temperatures and
relatively steep low-level lapse rates (away from the lake), and
low-level moisture increases from the southwest.=20

The most organized portion of the QLCS may continue moving across
southern Lake Erie and adjacent lakeshore areas, though some threat
will extend farther south as well. Damaging winds will remain the
most likely hazard, though modest low-level shear/SRH may also
support a brief tornado with any stronger line-embedded
circulations.=20

Some threat may approach the eastern edge of WW 551 into far
northeast OH and northwest PA by early evening. This may necessitate
local watch expansion or new watch issuance, depending on short-term
trends regarding downstream destabilization.

...Dean.. 07/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4rrVlU5nj56UqGt0ngITd_fiVGtM7xsWArFtkcne9g3GuX8WLkeoVeNqWyiamf2YPWRB4FHus=
74wWbLQSlL3dwJYll0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...

LAT...LON   42008274 42608113 42598053 42448007 42177989 41818006
            41608063 41228144 41158206 41098265 41088308 41098321
            41378317 42008274=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.