Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1726 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 17:45:31 ACUS11 KWNS 261745 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261745=20 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-261915- Mesoscale Discussion 1726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Areas affected...Southeast lower MI into northwest OH and far northeast IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 261745Z - 261915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Watch issuance is likely soon, as a damaging-wind threat spreads east-southeastward. DISCUSSION...A complex convective scenario is evident from southeast lower MI into northwest OH and northeast IN this afternoon. A loosely organized QLCS has evolved from earlier bowing clusters across southwest lower MI and northern IN. A well-organized elevated bowing cluster is also moving east of Milwaukee over southern lake Michigan, in the immediate wake of the earlier clusters. The trailing bow is associated with the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across WI. While convection has persisted and even slightly intensified along the gust front associated with the leading QLCS, storms have thus far struggled to attain severe intensity as they move east of the more favorable instability corridor. However, strong heating across northwest OH into southeast lower MI will eventually result in moderate destabilization ahead of the ongoing storms, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to near or above 2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is stronger farther west in association with the primary shortwave trough, but some increase is expected through the afternoon, with the shortwave moving eastward at a faster rate than the leading convection.=20 While the evolution of ongoing storms in uncertain and may be rather complex, the environment will become increasingly favorable for an organized damaging-wind threat into southeast lower MI and northwest OH later this afternoon, and watch issuance is likely soon. ...Dean/Hart.. 07/26/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-3aB6vVQ9SWkQr88FudxFVBemGoN3FqAAAd0JIRkgpoxRm85JEFiyiXzfN226oy819G1eDMl= GLLQW__NMrkJBgfGl8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 44118353 43868201 42708255 42278258 41978268 41708269 41648249 41178238 40638246 40518387 40348457 40388521 40488554 40928540 41448529 41958440 42358417 43168401 44118353=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .