Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1723
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 13:45:30

ACUS11 KWNS 261345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261345=20
MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-261545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...Southern Lake MI vicinity into western Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 261345Z - 261545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may increase with time this
morning. Eventual watch issuance is likely for parts of the region
and may be needed soon, but timing remains somewhat uncertain.

DISCUSSION...At 1330 UTC, one bowing thunderstorm cluster is
approaching west-central lower MI, while another small bowing
cluster is approaching the area between Milwaukee and Chicago. Wind
damage was recently reported near Beloit, WI with the southern
cluster, and a threat for at least isolated damaging wind will
likely continue in the short term, given the organized character of
the ongoing convection.=20

Convective evolution remains uncertain through the morning. The
ongoing clusters are on the eastern fringe of returning low-level
moisture and increasing instability, and at least the northern
cluster may tend to outpace the favorable buoyancy with time.
However, diurnal heating/destabilization and increasing deep-layer
flow/shear in advance of a shortwave trough over northern WI are
expected to support a general increase in the severe threat with
time, from ongoing convection and/or redevelopment near the trailing
outflow.  Thus, while timing remains uncertain, watch issuance will
become increasingly likely with time, and may be needed soon
depending on short-term convective trends.

...Dean/Hart.. 07/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5ORr1eDx_v0j_E0S0M69H5EePaGExtG7i60nqM3vylC9SPRZY1rnLF5pxbknnim1hfkEgdmF7=
DoiQ_6p7LkshP00p84$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON   42218810 42738801 42868777 43488728 44158694 44078567
            43808491 43278475 42868477 42368503 41878569 41878679
            41868742 42218810=20


=3D =3D =3D
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