Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1720
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 09:26:57

ACUS11 KWNS 260926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260926=20
IAZ000-261130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0426 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central/Central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 260926Z - 261130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail is possible for the next few hours with the
discrete supercell moving across northwest IA.

DISCUSSION...A weakening multicellular cluster has reintensified
into a robust discrete supercell over the past hour across northwest
IA. This reintensification was perhaps promoted by a combination of
increased large-scale ascent attendant to approaching shortwave
trough and low-level warm-air advection. Forecast soundings suggest
this supercell is likely rooted above 700 mb. Since this is above
the dry layer noted on forecast soundings, this storm may be able to
persist for at least the next few hours as it moves into more of
north-central/central IA. Steep mid-level lapse rates downstream,
combined with moderate vertical shear, will support updrafts strong
enough for large hail.

...Mosier/Edwards.. 07/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6S8ZmzZfi80b31bVgPp4X1yhv5nHjc88RvidlZTVhZpvu0P3z_qiUfDuc3SR7jL6FXiOXkNWN=
gmd2U-3uEsrBVYx-Ig$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43289518 42899369 42039398 42419538 43289518=20


=3D =3D =3D
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