Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1717
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 06:34:13

ACUS11 KWNS 260633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260633=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-260830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...Northwest MN...Far East-Central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 260633Z - 260830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible across northwest MN
and adjacent portions of far east-central ND for the next few hours.
Limited severe coverage is expected to preclude the need for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Notable forward acceleration has been observed within
the convective cluster moving across northwest MN and adjacent
extreme east-central ND over the past hour to hour and a half. The
cluster is moving within the instability gradient in place over the
region, with moderate to strong instability across eastern North
Dakota decreasing eastward to minimal instability across
north-central MN. Overall storm intensity has decreased over the
past 30 mins, but the central and eastern portions of the cluster
remain anchored to outflow, suggesting the potential for damaging
gusts still exists. Additional development is possible along the
western edge of the cluster, where the strongest buoyancy exists and
modest warm-air advection is in place. Damaging winds will remain
possible, but the overall coverage is expected to remain isolated,
precluding the need for a watch.

...Mosier/Edwards.. 07/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!52Cl8oW3Tu9CuYlQE9zC_cQwojbQjJTS4Xes4C8DdNKtL1rYfrXFSb7FkrB_QuA14rcoAZ5p3=
oVweKnGK3JjuJQgLPY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47869733 47919466 46799455 46719697 47869733=20


=3D =3D =3D
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