Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1716
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 06:10:59

ACUS11 KWNS 260610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260610=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-260745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...Southeast MN...West-Central WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

Valid 260610Z - 260745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line is expected to pose a continued
threat for damaging gusts as it persists into west-central WI.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized convective line continues to push
southeastward, with recent storm motion estimated at around 30-35
kt. A well-defined rear-inflow jet accompanies this system, which is
sampled well by recent KMPX data. However, even with this
rear-inflow jet, severe-surface gusts have not been observed in the
past hour or so, likely a result of low-level stability and the
inability for the strongest gusts to reach the surface. However,
low-level moisture increases downstream, with less convective
inhibition noted in forecast soundings as well. This could lead to a
increase in surface gusts over the next few hours.=20

Based on the current storm motion, the leading edge of the line is
expected to reach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548 around
07Z. A downstream watch will likely be needed, given the expectation
for the line to persist into west-central WI.

...Mosier/Edwards.. 07/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4SW4bgVOKTtMs7-tiRZiEK6jT3bUtHvCzsWiWk-ZDQwdc3PwDb_CvDUoQF_QxxCc_jajupmvY=
8uz7LeLnGzbHg8K59c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45349354 45019138 44189118 43769215 43969426 44729449
            45349354=20


=3D =3D =3D
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