Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 05:54:56 ACUS02 KWNS 260554 SWODY2 SPC AC 260553 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southern New England southward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. Damaging gusts and the risk for a tornado will be the primary hazards. ....Synopsis... A flattened mid-level anticyclone will be centered over NM and extend across the southern states. To its north, a progressive upper-air pattern will feature a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Lower Great Lakes to offshore New England by late Thursday evening. A mid-level speed max over the MN Boundary Waters will move quickly east into southern Quebec during the period. A cool front/surface trough is forecast to sweep east through much of the Northeast. A surface low over western Ontario will develop east while a trailing cold front settles southward into the Upper Midwest and becomes oriented west to east. ....Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic states... Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across the Adirondacks near the terminus of a 50-kt south-southwesterly LLJ. Moist low levels, featuring dewpoints from the mid 60s over ME to the low-mid 70s over southern New England and southward into the Delmarva, will destabilize amidst cloud breaks and strong heating. Weak capping will generally erode from north to south by midday into the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous storm coverage expected. Appreciably strong low to mid-level flow fields will aid in storm organization over the Slight Risk area, and a tornado or two is possible across southern New England. Both a mix of linear and cellular storms is expected. A larger band of storms will consolidate by the late afternoon/evening and push east of the Northeast coast by mid evening. Farther south over VA, weaker flow will limit storm organization but steep low-level lapse rates will favor isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts. ....WY into the Upper Midwest and central Great Plains... A more subtle, weakly forced regime is expected across the Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains on Thursday. As a front sags southward into parts of WI, MN, and SD during the day, model guidance continues to show a moderately to strongly unstable airmass over the Upper Midwest with lessening buoyancy farther west into the High Plains. The southern fringe of stronger westerly high-level flow and steep lapse rates will favor vigorous storms. Uncertainty remains as to the location of a potential cluster or two of more intense storms that may develop near/east of the MO River (i.e., eastern half of Marginal Risk area). It seems at least isolated thunderstorms will develop near the boundary, and the stronger storms will be capable of a hail/wind hazard. Farther southwest into the central High Plains, lower storm coverage is expected near a surface trough. Some strengthening of an 850-mb LLJ is depicted during the evening into the overnight across KS into the IA/northern MO vicinity. This may aid in additional storms developing late or perhaps sustain evening thunderstorms into the overnight hours. Some hail/wind risk could accompany the stronger storms. ...Smith.. 07/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .