Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1715
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 05:50:56

ACUS11 KWNS 260550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260550=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-260715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...Far Southeast SD...Far Northwest IA...Extreme
Northeast NE...Far Southwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547...

Valid 260550Z - 260715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe potential may extend into far southwest MN
and far northwest IA over the next hour or two before storms
dissipate.

DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell continues to move southeastward
across far southeast SD toward the SD/NE/IA border intersection
vicinity. Storm motion is estimated at around 35 kt, taking it to
the far northern SD/IA border by 06Z. This cell has trended toward
more forward-propagation and outflow-dominant storm structure over
the past hour or so, although the updraft currently remains quite
strong. The downstream air mass is characterized by a substantial
dry layer between about 925 and 600 mb, resulting in an notable
increase in convective inhibition with southeastward extent. Overall
buoyancy decreases with southeastward extent as well. Given these
hostile thermodynamic conditions downstream, the expectation is for
the storm intensity to gradually diminish. However, the overall
strength of this storms suggests it will likely take a while for the
storm to completely dissipate and some severe potential may extent
into far northwest IA.=20

An additional storm has recently strengthen farther north near the
southern SD/MN border, potentially as a result of a slightly more
favorable buoyancy and/or ascent tied to the approaching shortwave
trough. Airmass here currently appears to be more supportive than
that farther south, but that could be short-lived as outflow
approaches from the north. As a result, this storm may persist into
far southwest MN, with some isolated severe potential.

...Mosier.. 07/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-hrAlLFCWEG5zYyUmejDLmD5CqMFfa74uYbN2yOQhEN3LctlVaPLBbmKnJvW8a1jPUQlemWjp=
ZdJfT7tFyaoBZ35R4Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   44119676 44139568 43599510 42899500 42289526 42169576
            42269657 42759707 44119676=20


=3D =3D =3D
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