Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1710
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 26 2023 00:35:22

ACUS11 KWNS 260035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260034=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-260200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1710
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern into eastern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 260034Z - 260200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some conditional severe potential is evident across
northern into eastern Nebraska. Should storms overcome inhibition
and sustain themselves, severe gusts and hail are possible.
Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across Brown County,
NE, potentially aided by both maximum diurnal heating and upper
support from a weak mid-level trough grazing the area to the north.
Despite 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to extreme
instability (i.e. over 6000 J/kg MLCAPE) CINH is also strong (-100
J/kg per 00Z mesoanalysis). As such, questions remain whether the
developing storm in Brown County (along with other subsequent
storms) can mature and become sustained. Should this occur, the 35
kts of effective bulk shear (driven by modestly elongated
hodographs) is more than sufficient to support severe
hail/wind-producing supercells. Given questions regarding storm
longevity and coverage due to inhibition, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch.

...Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9LhuE0taGL79COBDByARAG8T5T4vmNvYltNrHPI5l2FFVlOHb_z2uVVQPf62mHBbV4Mw7unXz=
9PkhTEqi048o8aNzow$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42440017 42849940 42869808 42469651 41999631 41519680
            41319774 41209866 41289938 41409986 41810006 42440017=20


=3D =3D =3D
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